NFL Incentive Week and Playoff Scenarios
In week 18 it's all about contract incentives and obviously playoff scenarios so let's dive into it
The NFL Playoff Picture is pretty straightforward for this week with the big game coming Sunday Night for both the NFC North title and the NFC’s number one seed as the Vikings head to Detroit to face the Lions. Dan Campbell is an absolute psychopath for playing all his starters the entirety of the Monday night game which was absolutely meaningless. This gives the Lions a short week going into their biggest game of the year. Honestly, people trashed Campbell for doing it but would you expect anything different from a guy who drinks about 60 ounces of black coffee before he gets his day started? I wouldn’t.
From a betting angle the Lions come in at -3. If the Vikings can run the ball a little bit and get the play action game going I think they’ll give the Lions some fits. This has a massive O/U of 55.5 which isn’t bad considering the first matchup between these two ended up at 60. I truly have no idea who wins this or what side I’m on, but I’ll be back later on this one with a Same Game Parlay that’ll take care of your kids daycare bill for 2025.
Other Playoff Scenarios
AFC North: Ravens win the division with a win. Steelers win the division with a win and a Ravens loss.
AFC Wild Card: Broncos win against the Chiefs resting their starters and they’re in. Dolphins get in with a win and a Broncos loss. Bengals get in with a win plus a Broncos loss and a Dolphins loss or tie.
NFC South: Bucs win and they win the division. Falcons win and Bucs lose they win the division.
That’s the gist of the important stuff, everyone else is just playing for seeding or nothing at all.
It’s everybody’s favorite week of the year: Incentive Week
Every year as we reach the final week of the NFL regular season every gambler on the planet does some digging into player contract incentives. Why? Because every player knows what they need to hit to make that extra cash and if we just simply come along for the ride we'll all be able to build generational wealth along with them (probably).
Here are some notable player incentives for the weekend:
Mike Evans needs 5+ Receptions and 85+ Receiving Yards for $3M
Courtland Sutton needs 82+ Receiving Yards for $2M
Geno Smith needs 185+ Passing Yards for $2M
Tony Pollard needs 83+ Rushing Yards for $250K and 2 TD’s for another $250K
I would take a look at what the lines are on these players Over/Unders prior to game time. Evans O/U is at 98.5 right now at -125. They think he’s going to go bananas against a Saints pass defense that couldn’t defend him in a phone booth. Courtland Sutton’s O/U is at a 72.5 at -120 so I’m locking in that OVER immediately.
Now on to our weekend picks where I will start with the sad wrap up of bowl season.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: U43 (-112)
Full transparency, I am betting on this game for the sole reason that the winning coach gets a bucket of mayonnaise dumped on them when the game ends. Is it disgusting? Yes. Is it entertaining? Also yes. This game features Minnesota against a Virginia Tech team missing 14 of its 22 starters including their starting QB and starting RB. Minnesota has the 10th best defense in the country in terms of points per game only giving up 17.5. I’m counting on the Minnesota defense to hold down a bunch of backups while also not lighting up the scoreboard because their offense isn’t exactly the greatest show on turf. I’ll take the Under 43 and watch a coach get bathed in mayo when it’s all over.
Courtland Sutton O72.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Let’s keep this one simple. As you read up top he needs 82 yards for $2M. The Broncos are playing for the final playoff spot and he’s been their best receiver all season. I would expect they use him a lot in this one to get him his money and get the Broncos to the postseason.
Michigan State ML (+110) at Ohio State
Let’s touch on some college basketball while we’re here. This game is tonight and although everyone says you should always take the unranked home team that’s favored against the ranked road team, that just hasn’t worked over the last 18 months. Give me the ranked team at plus money on the road in this one.
Big A$$ TD’s Parlay: +1894
Lamar Jackson Anytime
Courtland Sutton Anytime
Drake London Anytime
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime
We missed our four leg TD scorer parlay last week by one leg. And since quitters never win, we’re back at it again. Saturday Lamar leads the Ravens to the AFC North title by pounding the Browns and running in a score for us. Then Ja’Marr Chase gets back on the TD track on Saturday night against Pittsburgh. Drake London couldn’t be more of a lock to score a TD this weekend against the Panthers and since I seem to have a love affair with Courtland Sutton this weekend we’ll have him take us to the promised land. Four simple TD’s and you can have yourself one whole bitcoin (not gambling advice).
Sunday Night SGP Moonshot: +8000
Justin Jefferson 2 TD’s
Amon-Ra St. Brown 2 TD’s
Jordan Addsion Anytime
The O/U is set at 55.5 and in a game of this magnitude I would bet on the stars showing up. Jefferson and St. Brown are two of the best receivers in football and the only two people outside of Gibbs you’d bet to score twice in this game. And since I feel like being greedy because scared money don’t make money I’m going to add in Jordan Addison finding the end zone as well. Do with this what you wish, but once this hits that vacation your wife always talks about will finally be paid for (probably).
That’s it for this edition of Parlay Friday. To prevent having to delete your betting apps, make sure you win your bets. It’s pretty much the only way to assure you don’t have to delete anything. I’ll be back mid-week next week to preview the CFP semifinals and possibly talk MLB free agency. And if you want to tell your friends to subscribe I probably wouldn’t hate it.