WE ARE BACK
I told you it was a see you later and later is now. We are back just in time for Bowl Season but in Newsletter form. The podcast remains on hold.
A lot has happened over the last two years and the gravitational forces have pulled me back to the sports industry. When I said “the man who chases two rabbits catches none”, it seems like I was chasing the wrong rabbit. Which is a conversation for a different time.
In the time since I’ve left the college football playoff has expanded to 12 teams, the Mets signed Juan Soto and everybody hates the Chiefs. And no, we still do not bet on the NBA. Remember it stands for Never Bet Again.
This won’t just be done on Friday’s, it’ll be done more like when I feel like it with Parlays also coming on Friday’s. But right now I’m not going to give you any picks. I am going to give you a brief look ahead to the College Football Playoff.
Friday December 20th
#10 Indiana vs. #7 Notre Dame
Here we go. I’m going to say this and I don’t care who gets offended but neither of these teams are any good. Right now Notre Dame is a 7.5 point favorite (-112) the Over Under sits at 51 and Indiana is +250 on the money line. Let’s get serious here, Indiana hasn’t played anybody and when they played Ohio State they got crushed. The only reason the score was closer than it appeared was because Indiana decided to run the ball almost every play on a drive in the 4th quarter down 31-7 that killed 9 minutes off the clock.
At least Notre Dame played a couple of teams who you can consider decent. And yes, I know they lost to Northern Illinois at home, which is terrible but they’ve beaten Texas A&M, Army, Navy and Louisville and all four of those teams are better than anyone Indiana has played outside of Ohio State. Do with that what you will but right now this seems like a game Notre Dame wins by a few scores. And I’ll give my official pick on the December 20th Parlay Friday since that is the day this game is being played.
Saturday December 21st
#11 SMU vs #6 Penn State
In yet another matchup where neither team has beaten anybody, we have SMU going to Penn State. Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite in this one at -110 while the Over Under sits at 53.5. SMU just like Indiana is +250 on the money line. What’s interesting about this game is that SMU plays a similar style of offense to Oregon who just put up a 47 spot on Penn State in the Big Ten championship game. They’re fast and they like to run hurry up and that can cause issues for the Penn State defense. SMU also has a big defensive line that can match up with Penn State’s O-Line.
Every talking head is telling you it’s a foregone conclusion that Penn State wins this game and that they have the easiest path to the semifinals. I’m saying you might want to pump the breaks on that for a minute because Penn State isn’t that good and SMU is better than people think.
#12 Clemson vs #5 Texas
You can say Texas got a gift here. But you can also say Texas has only beaten one ranked team all season and played a dog shit SEC schedule. Now, they are at home and they are monster favorites at -11 (-112). This over under is at 51 and Clemson is +310 on the money line.
Although Texas hasn’t really played anyone outside of Georgia and A&M I still think they’re a very good football team. Clemson is only in this thing because they won the ACC championship game. But Clemson has a championship pedigree and Dabo is still a hell of a coach even if he says some outlandish shit. I’m not sure I’m ready to fully go to sleep on Clemson but we’ll have to wait and see in another 10 days.
#9 Tennessee vs #8 Ohio State
This game is odd to me because I truly have no idea who wins this one. But I’ll tell you this. After watching both of these teams play this season I think Ohio State being a 7.5 point favorite is obscene. The over under is at 47 right now and Tennessee is +215 on the money line.
I honestly don’t know why this game is capped the way it currently is. It feels like it’s because the game is in Columbus and it’s going to be cold. But I truly have no idea. I’ve watched multiple games from both of these teams this season and I think Tennessee is slightly better. Can I be wrong? Sure can. Usually I am. But this feels like a miss on Vegas’s part and you can probably sense who I’m leaning towards.
CFP Futures
To Win the National Championship
Texas +360
Oregon +360
Georgia +450
Ohio State +475
Penn State +600
Notre Dame +800
Tennessee +2500
Indiana +4000
SMU +4500
Clemson +5500
Arizona State +6000
Boise State +6500
I’m going to end by saying two things. The first thing is Tennessee at +2500 is madness. First of all, I think they’re better than Ohio State. And second of all I think they can beat Oregon and make a run. So that number is insane to me.
Secondly, the disrespect to Boise State is a travesty. I feel like nobody truly watches football or I’m an idiot. But Boise State is 11-1. Do you know who their one loss was to? It was to Oregon at Oregon by a field goal (37-34). The same Oregon who’s the number one ranked team in the country and the only undefeated team in the country. Yes, they took that team down to the wire on their home field. And they have the largest odds to win the national title? If they get Penn State in round 2, they will beat Penn State. And after that, who knows what can happen especially with Georgia playing with their backup QB. The only thing I will give you here is that I am putting something on Boise State to win the whole thing because those odds are straight up disrespectful.
Tell your friends that Parlay Friday is back and better than ever. And let’s get cooking!